Daryl Morey’s Championship Probability Calculator
Trust the process.
By Noah Cohen-Greenberg and Sam Mermin
An exclusive inside look at 76ers GM Daryl Morey’s Team Rating System (TeaRS). In line with Morey’s rise to fame as the most analytically focused General Manager in NBA history, TeaRS is considered by many sports Statisticians to be the most advanced analytical machine in the NBA. By combining various metrics into a single measurement of overall team quality (on a scale of 0 to 600 MoreyPoints), Morey can objectively measure his team against the competition. To reach the 5% championship probability that Morey has identified as the cutoff for a true “contender” (the point at which a team should go all-in on winning), a team needs at least 500 MoreyPoints.
2021 Philadelphia 76ers TeaRS Model:
7’2” Three-point-shooting center: +495 MoreyPoints
Lack of a traditional point guard: -70 MoreyPoints
Tobias Harris: +1 MoreyPoint
Grumbly-looking coach: +45 MoreyPoints
Greatest shooter of all time’s brother: +14 MoreyPoints
Three-point-shooting center with ~5% chance of shattering leg any time he jumps: -200 MoreyPoints
Disgruntled star player on max contract refuses to play: -100 MoreyPoint
Elite shot-blocking guard: +53 MoreyPoints
Call Celtics every now and then to ask for Jayson Tatum: +150 MoreyPoints
Bloodthirsty fan-base getting fed up with constant disappointment: -97 MoreyPoints
Disgruntled star player on max contract says “Hello” to coaching assistant: +50 MoreyPoints
Player who is coach’s son-in-law: +15 MoreyPoints
Backup center who looks like a lumberjack and couldn’t hit a free throw for $500: +25 MoreyPoints
Disgruntled star player on max contract shows up to first practice in months and spends entire time blowing whistle while coach tries to talk: -150 MoreyPoints
Coach with fake-sounding name: +60 MoreyPoints
Least creative mascot of all time: -1 MoreyPoints
Young point guard who might be kind of good in like 5 years: +80 MoreyPoints
Disgruntled star player on max contract burns practice facility to the ground: -175 MoreyPoints
GM grows a beard: +40 MoreyPoints
Hypothetical worth of a Simmons-for-McCollum trade: +100 MoreyPoints
The 76ers currently have 499 MoreyPoints. Perhaps adding some shooting around Ben Simmons at the trade deadline will finally push them over the edge.
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